← Weatherlight Grand Archive HVN Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Weatherlight Grand Archive HVN Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 13.8% | 13 | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 44.1% | 47.7% | -1.0 |
| Water Genbu | 10.8% | 11 | 7-2-2 | 72.7% | 66.7% | 69.1% | +8.4 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 6 | 1-3-2 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -3.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.2% | 7 | 1-4-2 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 43.9% | -3.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.6% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 58.2% | +4.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.1% | -10.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 66.7% | +12.5 |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +3.7 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.2% | +8.8 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Fire Razorgale | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Diana | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
| Water Neos | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Quicksilver Grail, Art of War. Losers more often ran: Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa, Grand Crusader's Ring, Jianyu, Fate's Premonition.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |